Over the past few years, ever-escalating tensions and geopolitical rifts between Europe and the United States and Russia, as well as its close ally, China, have also affected aviation in various ways.
Without mentioning aircraft-related issues, including Western lessors’ assets that are stuck in Russia, one problem that has been affecting carriers on the Western side of the geopolitical block was that they could no longer access Russia’s airspace following the country’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Since then, Western allies have banned Russian airlines from entering their airspace, with the latter immediately repaying the favor.
As a result, European and US airlines have largely avoided adding flights to China and Hong Kong, while airlines based in these regions have outpaced the growth of their Western counterparts, adding more frequencies year-on-year (YoY) in 2024.
Uneven growth
Looking at data from the aviation analytics company Cirium, 15 Europe and US-based airlines, excluding Russian carriers, have scheduled 234 weekly flights to China and Hong Kong in August.
In comparison, these airlines had 173 weekly itineraries to China and Hong Kong in August 2023, representing a 35.3% growth in flights YoY.
However, only three airlines have added more than ten flights to their networks to China and Hong Kong YoY.
Air China Airbus A330 landing with an American Airlines aircraft in the foreground shutterstock_2417007465Photo: Wirestock Creators | Shutterstock
Summary
European and United States-based carriers have seen limited growth opportunities for flights in China.
That was because in large part, these airlines have been affected by the closure of the airspace over Russia, which has not affected their Chinese counterparts.
As a result, China-based airlines have outpaced European and US-based companies when it comes to the recovery of flights from/to China.
Over the past few years, ever-escalating tensions and geopolitical rifts between Europe and the United States and Russia, as well as its close ally, China, have also affected aviation in various ways.
Without mentioning aircraft-related issues, including Western lessors’ assets that are stuck in Russia, one problem that has been affecting carriers on the Western side of the geopolitical block was that they could no longer access Russia’s airspace following the country’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Since then, Western allies have banned Russian airlines from entering their airspace, with the latter immediately repaying the favor.
As a result, European and US airlines have largely avoided adding flights to China and Hong Kong, while airlines based in these regions have outpaced the growth of their Western counterparts, adding more frequencies year-on-year (YoY) in 2024.
Uneven growth
Looking at data from the aviation analytics company Cirium, 15 Europe and US-based airlines, excluding Russian carriers, have scheduled 234 weekly flights to China and Hong Kong in August.
In comparison, these airlines had 173 weekly itineraries to China and Hong Kong in August 2023, representing a 35.3% growth in flights YoY.
However, only three airlines have added more than ten flights to their networks to China and Hong Kong YoY.
United Airlines Boeing 787-9 at PVG shutterstock_1585431412Photo: Phuong D. Nguyen | Shutterstock
This included United Airlines (19 additional weekly departures), Lufthansa (17 additional weekly departures), and Delta Air Lines (ten additional weekly departures).
August 2019
August 2023
August 2024
Western airlines’ weekly flights to China
502
173
234
Western airlines’ weekly seats to China
153,105
52,651
70,392
At the same time, comparing the same month’s data from 2019 painted a stark image, showing that for Western carriers, the Chinese market was still half of what it was in 2024.
In a February filing, American Airlines requested the Department of Transportation (DOT) to extend its waiver to not operate its 14 weekly flights from the US to China, which was introduced in March 2020 and has been extended several times throughout the past few years.
While American Airlines praised the DOT’s efforts to reinstate frequencies between the two countries, the airline said that the majority of pre-pandemic frequencies have continued to be dormant “and likely will remain so through at least the 2024 summer season, since US–China passenger demand has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels.”
Requesting an extension of the same waiver, Delta Air Lines repeated American’s sentiments, firstly praising the DOT.