It will be ‘slaughter as usual’ for Israel in Gaza and Lebanon under the incoming Trump administration, analysts say.
Even before the US presidential election polls had closed on Tuesday night, Israel’s far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir had taken to Twitter, posting “Yesssss” in English, while adding emojis of a flexing bicep and images of the Israeli and American flags.
Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, was only slightly slower in congratulating former US President Donald Trump on his triumph in the US presidential election, becoming the first world leader to do so and framing Trump’s victory as a “powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America”.
Two days before this week’s election, which saw Trump stage one of the wildest political comebacks in recent history, leading the Republican Party to a landslide victory, polls in Israeli media showed Trump had already won the hearts and minds of many in Israel.
Asked who they would like to see in the White House, almost 65 percent of respondents said they preferred Trump over his rival, Kamala Harris. Among those who identified themselves as Jewish, the difference was even more marked, with 72 percent of those polled telling the Israel Democracy Institute they felt Israel’s interests would be better served by a Trump presidency.
This is a further lurch towards the Republicans. A similar poll conducted by the same body in 2020 showed that 63 percent of Israelis favoured Trump over the eventual victor, Joe Biden.
For Vice President Kamala Harris, who polls showed took a beating for her administration’s unflinching, if occasionally critical, support of Israel’s war on Gaza and its refusal to halt military aid, celebrations of Trump’s win in Israel likely come as another twist of the knife in her defeat.
The U.S.-Israel Alliance Under a Trump Presidency
The relationship between the United States and Israel has long been a pillar of American foreign policy in the Middle East, often strengthened under Republican administrations. Trump’s previous presidency showed robust support for Israel, marked by controversial decisions such as the relocation of the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem and the endorsement of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. For Israel’s government, Trump’s re-election promises a continuation of policies that align closely with Israel’s strategic interests in Gaza, the West Bank, and vis-à-vis Iran.
This alliance seems especially welcomed by Israel’s conservative factions. Far-right political figures in Israel, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, have expressed excitement for Trump’s return. His influence could drive even more unilateral Israeli actions regarding Palestinian territories, as Trump has historically taken a pro-Israel stance with limited regard for Palestinian grievances.
Israel’s Far-Right Government and Regional Security Strategy
The current Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition, has an assertive security policy focused on Gaza, Lebanon, and preventing Iran from advancing its nuclear capabilities. Netanyahu, who was among the first world leaders to congratulate Trump, anticipates that Trump’s administration will provide greater freedom for Israel to act militarily without international intervention, as was often the case during Trump’s initial term.
One significant concern under a Trump presidency is the potential for an increase in Israeli military operations in Gaza and Lebanon. Analysts argue that a stronger U.S.-Israel alliance under Trump could mean more direct confrontations with Hezbollah in Lebanon and intensified military campaigns in Gaza. Such a strategy is likely to provoke retaliatory actions from Palestinian and Lebanese militant groups, escalating regional violence.
The Palestinian Perspective and Potential Ramifications
For Palestinians, Trump’s previous administration marked a challenging period with policies widely viewed as favoring Israeli sovereignty over Palestinian rights. The endorsement of the Abraham Accords—normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab countries—shifted the diplomatic landscape, marginalizing the Palestinian cause in the regional context. Trump’s win thus represents a continuation of policies that could further limit Palestinian diplomatic leverage and reduce support for a two-state solution.
With potential for increased military support and funding from the U.S., Israel may accelerate its settlements in the West Bank and take a harsher stance on Gaza, creating a humanitarian crisis. Such developments would likely reignite widespread international criticism, especially from the United Nations and humanitarian organizations that continue to condemn settlement expansions and civilian casualties in Gaza.
American Public Opinion and the Israel-Palestine Debate
While U.S. policy towards Israel has traditionally been a bipartisan issue, American public opinion on the Israel-Palestine conflict has become more polarized in recent years. Many Americans, particularly younger demographics, have grown increasingly critical of Israel’s policies towards Palestinians, questioning whether U.S. support aligns with American values and interests. This is also reflected in the Democratic Party, where figures like Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have criticized unconditional support for Israel and advocated for Palestinian rights.
Trump’s win, however, underscores a shift in American-Israeli relations towards a more partisan stance. Within the Republican Party, support for Israel remains strong, largely due to shared values on security and religious connections to the Holy Land. For Democrats, and notably for Kamala Harris—Trump’s defeated opponent—his victory signifies a reinforcement of conservative ideals that may challenge progressive stances on foreign policy and human rights in the Middle East.
Regional Implications and Iran’s Strategic Calculations
A Trump presidency also has significant implications for Iran, Israel’s most formidable regional adversary. The “maximum pressure” campaign implemented under Trump’s administration, which included economic sanctions on Iran, aimed to weaken Iran’s economy and limit its influence across the Middle East. Should Trump adopt a similar policy, Iran could face renewed sanctions, which would further strain its economy and reduce its ability to support allied groups in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.
From Israel’s perspective, U.S. pressure on Iran reduces the threat of an Iranian nuclear program. However, a hardline stance could also push Iran to strengthen its own regional alliances, which could lead to increased support for Hezbollah and other groups hostile to Israel. The escalation of hostilities could further destabilize the region, triggering more U.S.-Israel joint operations and potentially leading to direct confrontations with Iranian-backed forces.
Diplomatic Fallout: Reactions from Arab States and the International Community
Trump’s influence may also reshape the relationships between Israel and Arab states, particularly those that are part of or considering the Abraham Accords. Nations such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, which normalized ties with Israel under the accords, might welcome the renewal of strong U.S.-Israel relations under Trump. The accords brought economic and diplomatic benefits, including defense partnerships and technological cooperation.
Conversely, countries more supportive of Palestinian sovereignty, such as Jordan and Egypt, may feel pressured by any increased aggression toward Gaza and the West Bank. These nations face internal challenges related to public opinion on the Palestinian cause and may need to carefully navigate relations with both Israel and the U.S. under Trump’s leadership to avoid domestic discontent.
The Role of Domestic Policy on U.S. Foreign Relations
Trump’s re-election could signify a shift in U.S. foreign policy focus, with greater attention to domestic issues such as economic growth, immigration, and “America First” principles. This approach may reduce America’s role in brokering peace or advancing human rights abroad, leaving Israel with fewer checks on its regional strategy. As domestic challenges demand more resources, Trump’s administration may limit U.S. involvement in peace processes, particularly if they appear to conflict with American strategic interests.
The Long-Term Outlook for U.S.-Israel Relations
The outcome of Trump’s re-election signals a long-term commitment to strong U.S.-Israel relations. For Israel, Trump’s support represents an opportunity to advance its interests, particularly concerning security threats from Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. However, this alliance could lead to increased violence in the Middle East, with potential humanitarian and diplomatic consequences.
For the U.S., balancing strategic interests in the region with growing domestic and international criticism of its Israel policies remains a challenge. As global perspectives on the Israel-Palestine conflict shift, future administrations may face increased pressure to adopt a more balanced approach, but under Trump, U.S.-Israel relations are likely to grow even stronger, potentially at the cost of stability in the Middle East.