The scale of Novak Djokovic’s rankings collapse will be rubbered stamped at the end of the ATP Finals in Turin – and it could be hugely significant for his hopes heading into 2025.
Djokovic’s decision to withdraw from the ATP Finals ensured his rapid rankings fall was inevitable, and his move to withdraw from the Paris Masters last month added to his decline.
The 1,000 points he won at last year’s Paris Masters dropped off his rankings total on Monday and now the live rankings have confirmed the 1,300 points he claimed from his ATP Finals win last year have been removed from his total in the live rankings.
While Djokovic has insisted rankings are no longer a concern for him at this belated stage of his career, the harsh reality of his move to become a part-time tennis player in the final months of his career could undermine his hopes of adding to his record-breaking collection of Grand Slam titles next year.
Djokovic is down to No 6 in the live ATP Rankings and that fall is likely to continue heading into the final tournament of the year.
The ATP Finals in Turin offers bumper rankings points and with Casper Ruud, Andrey Rublev and Alex de Minaur just a few points behind Djokovic in the rankings, all three have a chance to leap ahead of the Serbian in Turin.
That could demote Djokovic down to No 9 in the ATP Rankings and while that may not give the Serbian any sleepless nights as he prepares for an extended off-season, it could be significant when he gets to Australia for the opening Grand Slam of the the new year.
Djokovic will head to Melbourne looking to win a remarkable 11th Australian Open title in January and given his waning motivation to compete on the tour, there has to be a good chance that this will be his final attempt to win the major he has won more than any other.
If he is ranked at No 9 for the Australian Open, he could face world No 1 Jannik Sinner in the fourth round of the competition.
In an unexpected twist for Novak Djokovic, one of tennis’s most dominant figures, a steep rankings drop is now underway as the 2023 ATP season nears its close. His ranking decline—catalyzed by the Serbian’s decision to withdraw from both the Rolex Paris Masters and ATP Finals—may have a profound impact as he looks toward what could be the final stages of his storied career. For Djokovic, the rankings shift may not seem immediately troubling given his focus on major titles over smaller tour events; however, its repercussions could significantly alter his path to additional Grand Slam titles, beginning with the Australian Open in January.
The Rankings Drop Explained
At this point in his career, Djokovic has repeatedly emphasized that the pursuit of ATP ranking points has become secondary to his legacy goal: extending his record-breaking collection of 24 Grand Slam titles. However, his reduced schedule has amplified the effect of ranking points expiring from previous high-stakes tournaments, including 1,000 points from last year’s Paris Masters win and 1,300 points from his 2022 ATP Finals victory.
With these points now deducted from his total, Djokovic has slipped to No. 6 in the live ATP Rankings, with the prospect of further decline following the ATP Finals in Turin. Djokovic’s absence from Turin opens the door for his rivals, particularly Casper Ruud, Andrey Rublev, and Alex de Minaur, to capitalize on the points available, potentially pushing him as low as No. 9.
The Impact of a Lower Ranking at Grand Slam Events
If Djokovic’s ranking remains outside the top eight as the 2025 season commences, it could complicate his early-round draws at major tournaments. Lower seeding may place him on a collision course with top players like Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, and Daniil Medvedev earlier in Grand Slam events, increasing the difficulty of navigating his way to the final rounds. For a player who has thrived on strategically managing his physical and mental exertion throughout tournaments, encountering top-ranked competition in the early stages could impact Djokovic’s ability to conserve energy for the crucial final rounds.
The Australian Open stands as a prime example. Djokovic has won a record 10 titles there, maintaining a near-unbreakable dominance at Melbourne Park, where he has long benefited from his historically high seeding. A No. 9 seed, however, would put him at risk of facing a top-ranked opponent as early as the fourth round—a scenario that could increase his margin for error. Facing the likes of world No. 1 Jannik Sinner, who has been in superb form, or an in-form Alcaraz in the early rounds would present a greater test than in past years.
Djokovic’s Evolving Strategy: Major Titles Over Weekly Rankings
For Djokovic, the decision to skip Paris and Turin suggests an increasing willingness to prioritize physical recovery over the pursuit of rankings points. At 37 years old, Djokovic has openly discussed his focus on playing fewer events to preserve his longevity on tour. This approach aligns with the pattern set by tennis legend Roger Federer during his later years, when Federer similarly trimmed his tournament schedule, focusing on peak performance at major championships rather than climbing the ATP ladder week by week.
This new strategy, however, is a double-edged sword. While it conserves Djokovic’s energy for Grand Slam competition, it also renders him vulnerable to the rankings drop-offs that now impact his seeding. With the ATP ranking system heavily rewarding consistent participation and deep runs at ATP Masters events, Djokovic’s ranking erosion may be inevitable if he continues on this selective schedule.
Can Djokovic Compete with an “Elite Challenger” Role?
As Djokovic potentially slips into lower-seeded territory, he could find himself cast into a role unfamiliar to him: that of the “elite challenger.” In an era where he, Rafael Nadal, and Federer dominated the rankings, Djokovic rarely entered any tournament outside the top four, ensuring a bracket protected from facing the highest-seeded players early on. Now, with Sinner, Alcaraz, and Medvedev ascending in the rankings, Djokovic may confront the unusual prospect of facing top players in successive matches from the fourth round onward.
This shift in role could alter the mental and tactical landscape for Djokovic, who has long excelled under the pressure of high-stakes, late-round matches. Facing top seeds earlier in tournaments could necessitate more physical strain and, potentially, more matches that go the full five sets. While Djokovic’s fitness and mental fortitude are legendary, the cumulative toll of tough early matches could become more pronounced over the course of a two-week Grand Slam event.
The Australian Open: What’s at Stake?
With Djokovic’s absence from the ATP Finals all but confirming his lower seeding at the Australian Open, the stakes in Melbourne are higher than ever. The Australian Open has been Djokovic’s most successful Slam, a fortress where he’s built a 10-title legacy. Now, as he approaches 2025, questions arise: Could this be his final chance to add an 11th Australian Open title to his record? At 37, Djokovic has already defied age expectations, but another grueling Slam run in the Melbourne heat will demand peak form and focus.
A potential clash with Sinner, Alcaraz, or Medvedev in the fourth round or quarterfinals of the Australian Open would make his path to the title steeper. As the younger generation strengthens its hold on the ATP landscape, the intense competition within Djokovic’s bracket may be unlike any previous season, further amplifying the importance of a strong start.
A New Era for Men’s Tennis?
Djokovic’s ranking decline, coupled with the meteoric rise of players like Sinner and Alcaraz, marks a significant shift within men’s tennis. Fans and analysts alike are watching to see how Djokovic navigates this new phase, where he may transition from dominant favorite to a seasoned, strategic underdog fighting to maintain his place in history. Sinner, in particular, has emerged as a formidable force, recently clinching his maiden Masters 1000 title and showing signs of consistent improvement. Alcaraz, too, remains a threat with his powerful, dynamic style, representing a younger breed of players unafraid to take on established legends.
Looking Ahead: Djokovic’s Legacy and the Path Forward
While the narrative around Djokovic’s career has largely centered on his record-breaking Grand Slam count, his adaptability in facing this career phase will play a significant role in how he is remembered. Djokovic has broken records, transcended eras, and remained a relentless competitor, yet his journey isn’t over. A final push for additional titles, even if hindered by a reduced ranking, could further cement his status as one of the game’s all-time greats.
As Djokovic enters the 2025 season, his next moves will be closely scrutinized. Will he maintain his current selective approach, or shift strategy to reclaim some of his lost ranking ground? Will he secure an 11th title at Melbourne Park or face an early exit against a top rival? While these questions remain unanswered, one thing is certain: Djokovic’s journey into 2025 promises to be an intriguing chapter in the history of men’s tennis, one in which every decision, from tournament participation to match preparation, will impact the legacy he leaves behind.
Final Thoughts: The Transition Era
Whether Djokovic ultimately succeeds or falls short in his quest for further Grand Slam glory, his ranking drop symbolizes a larger narrative of transition in men’s tennis. As Djokovic, Nadal, and Federer’s era nears its close, fans and players alike are witnessing the rise of a new generation ready to stake its claim on the sport. For Djokovic, the road ahead may be steep, but it also offers a rare opportunity to prove once more that age and rankings are merely numbers, not limitations.