For the ninth time in the last 10 years, the US Open will crown a first-time women’s singles champion (the only repeat being Naomi Osaka in 2020). And unless Aryna Sabalenka prevails, it will be a first-time major winner for the seventh occasion during that span.
An all-U.S. final—which would be the first since 2017, when Sloane Stephens defeated Madison Keys for her lone Slam, and just the second since Serena Williams topped sister Venus in 2002—remains a possibility, with Jessica Pegula and Emma Navarro on opposite sides of the draw. They will have their work cut out for them, though, with the Americans, both first-time Grand Slam semifinalists, facing off against Karolina Muchova and Sabalenka, respectively, both of whom are into the US Open semifinals for a second consecutive year.
The second-seeded Sabalenka will enter the Final Four as the prohibitive favorite, having reached last year’s US Open final and won the 2023 and 2024 Australian Open titles. She will go up against No. 13 Navarro, the former NCAA champ who toppled reigning women’s singles titlist Coco Gauff in the fourth round and backed that up with a straight-sets victory over Paula Badosa.
They will be followed by No. 6 Pegula, who ousted top seed Iga Swiatek to snap a six-match losing streak in Grand Slam quarterfinals, facing off against the talented but injury-prone Muchova, aiming for her second career Grand Slam final and first-ever title.
The four women have all taken commanding paths through the draw, dropping a grand total of three sets between them en route to the semis, all of which should set up a fantastic finish to this year’s Flushing fortnight.
For the ninth time in the past decade, the US Open will witness the coronation of a first-time women’s singles champion. This remarkable streak of unpredictability, in which the tournament has consistently unveiled new champions, has only been interrupted by Naomi Osaka’s triumphs in 2018 and 2020. Yet, even more history may be made this year, as three out of the four remaining semifinalists are in contention for their first-ever Grand Slam title. If Aryna Sabalenka doesn’t come out on top, the 2024 US Open will mark the seventh time in 10 years that the women’s champion is also a first-time Grand Slam winner.
An all-American final, something not seen since Sloane Stephens’ triumph over Madison Keys in 2017, still remains a possibility. If it happens, it would be just the second all-U.S. women’s final since 2002, when Serena Williams defeated her sister Venus to claim the crown. Jessica Pegula and Emma Navarro stand as the American hopes, yet they face daunting challenges as they take on formidable opponents in the semifinals.
On one side, second-seeded Aryna Sabalenka, a two-time Grand Slam champion, will face off against No. 13 seed Emma Navarro, who has taken the tournament by storm with an impressive series of wins, including a shocking upset over reigning champion Coco Gauff. On the other, Jessica Pegula, the No. 6 seed, finds herself up against Karolina Muchova, a player known for her incredible talent but also for being hampered by injuries throughout her career.
Aryna Sabalenka enters the semifinals as the prohibitive favorite to win the tournament. She has been in phenomenal form, having reached the US Open final in 2023 and already claiming two Grand Slam titles in 2023 and 2024, both at the Australian Open. Known for her aggressive baseline play and powerful serve, Sabalenka has emerged as one of the top contenders on the WTA Tour. Her path to the semifinals has been one of sheer dominance, as she has dropped just one set throughout the tournament.
Sabalenka’s performance this year reflects her consistency and ability to rise to the occasion on the sport’s biggest stages. Her experience in Grand Slam finals will be a key advantage as she navigates through the closing rounds of the tournament. Having tasted the pressure of the US Open final before, she knows exactly what it takes to come out on top in New York, and that makes her the woman to beat.
Her opponent, Emma Navarro, may be a less familiar name to some fans, but she is no stranger to success. As a former NCAA champion, Navarro has proven her ability to win on big stages. Her win over reigning champion Coco Gauff in the fourth round was a career-defining moment, and she backed it up with another stellar performance in the quarterfinals, defeating Paula Badosa in straight sets.
For Navarro, the semifinal clash against Sabalenka represents an opportunity to make a name for herself on the international stage. She has already demonstrated remarkable composure and grit throughout the tournament, and with the home crowd behind her, Navarro could be poised to pull off another upset.
For Jessica Pegula, the US Open has been a journey of redemption. Entering the semifinals, Pegula has finally broken through a barrier that has haunted her for much of her career. After enduring six consecutive quarterfinal losses in Grand Slam tournaments, she ended that streak with a stunning victory over top seed Iga Swiatek in the quarterfinals. The win not only showcased Pegula’s ability to compete with the very best, but it also proved that she can rise to the occasion when the stakes are at their highest.
Pegula’s all-court game has made her a versatile and dangerous opponent. Her ability to adapt to different playing styles, combined with her mental toughness, has been a major factor in her success at this year’s US Open. She now stands just two wins away from becoming the first American woman outside of Serena Williams and Sloane Stephens to win the US Open since 2002.
However, standing in her way is Karolina Muchova, a player who has consistently demonstrated her potential to be a Grand Slam champion. Muchova, the 2023 French Open finalist, has overcome numerous injury setbacks throughout her career, but she appears to be peaking at the right time. Her smooth, all-around game is a stark contrast to the power-hitting style of her competitors, and her variety could present a unique challenge for Pegula.
Muchova’s path to the semifinals has been equally impressive, having dropped just one set en route to the Final Four. Muchova’s strong tactical approach, combined with her ability to move seamlessly around the court, makes her one of the most dangerous players left in the draw.
The US Open has built a reputation in recent years as the place where new stars emerge. Since 2014, the tournament has seen a revolving door of champions, with first-time winners like Flavia Pennetta (2015), Angelique Kerber (2016), Sloane Stephens (2017), Bianca Andreescu (2019), and Emma Raducanu (2021) all rising to the occasion.
This unpredictability has made the women’s singles draw at the US Open one of the most thrilling events in tennis, as each year seems to deliver fresh faces to the winner’s circle. The 2024 edition has been no different, with all four semifinalists entering the final stages of the tournament after outstanding performances.
As the US Open nears its climax, all four remaining players have a unique opportunity to write their names into the history books. For Sabalenka, it’s a chance to solidify her place as one of the most dominant players of her generation with a third Grand Slam title. For Pegula and Navarro, an all-American final would be a historic moment, symbolizing the continued strength of U.S. tennis. And for Muchova, it’s the chance to finally claim her first major title after years of injury setbacks.
No matter the outcome, this year’s US Open is poised to deliver an unforgettable finale. With so much at stake and such an array of talent, the final weekend promises to be a thrilling conclusion to an already captivating tournament.